Two big (and not very happy) stories this week were the news that iOS 8 adoption has stalled, and that GT Advanced—Apple's big bet in sapphire—filed for bankruptcy.
First, it's been pretty widely reported that iOS 8 adoption hasn't made it out of the 40% range yet. In contrast, iOS 7 (despite representing a far great change to the iOS user experience) was already in the 70% range by this time after its release. When I first read about this, I assumed that it was a result of the 8.0.1 debacle, but as Gruber wrote this past week, I am now convinced that it's a storage space issue. And, let's be totally clear here: this is entirely Apple's fault:
- They've been selling tons of 16GB iPhones
- They've done an awesome job of untethering your iPhone from your Mac or PC
- There isn't an easy way to migrate your full-sized photographs and videos off your iPhone unless you do tether your iPhone to your computer or you're running iOS 8
Rah-rah, go Apple. They've made the iPhone the most-used camera in the world. And, they've also managed to mangle their developer ecosystem. Apple pushes us hard to adopt the latest and greatest iOS features. It's easiest for us as developers to simply abandon older versions of iOS in order to support these new features, and—since we've been able to rely on incredibly good uptake of the latest version of iOS—it's been not unreasonable to immediately ditch support for a year-old version of the OS. But, with stalled adoption of iOS 8, we may see a vicious cycle develop where it's no longer necessary for users to upgrade to the latest version of the OS because there aren't any cool apps that require it. And those cool apps won't adopt the latest version, because user adoption has stalled. I really hope this gets fixed soon.
Meanwhile, GT Advanced, Apple's big bet on sapphire, unexpectedly filed for bankruptcy this past week. Their stock, which had peaked at $20 shortly before the announcement of the iPhone 6, dropped down to about $10 after it was clear that the 6 and 6 Plus would use Gorilla Glass screens, and then plummeted to less than $1 after their bankruptcy announcement. Since then, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster: up 100% in a day, then down 50%, up 30%, etc. The latest development is that GT Advanced has announced that it will be winding down its Arizona operations (which is where sapphire for the Apple Watch was to be produced). Analysts suggest this shouldn't harm Apple's ability to produce Apple Watches, as they will have alternate suppliers for these small sapphire screens.
Best,
Aaron
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